Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
