Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
